Where Two Paths Diverge...

Here is the truth about the future: We are living on borrowed money and borrowed time. These deficits hike interest rates, clobber exports, stunt investment, kill jobs, undermine growth, cheat our kids, and shrink our future. 

- Walter Mondale, Democratic Presidential nominee, July 19, 1984 Democratic National Convention

Today, President Obama acknowledged reality.  Just two months ago, he submitted a 10 year budget that said and did nothing to lower our deficit in the near term.  Unusual as it is for a President to scrap his own plan, Obama was forced to present a new plan due to the reasoned response to Paul Ryan's The Path to Prosperity and it's acceptance as a serious proposal.  His choice was to either allow the Republicans to direct the narrative or attempt to offer a competing vision on how to accomplish the same goals.

 

Despite acknowledging reality today, the President chose to offer a 12 year plan that will do little other than make it seem he is doing something.  Talk of commissions, defense cuts and future year triggers means that he has no intention of changing his current spending plans.  Instead, he offered numerous tax increases as his planned "spending cuts".  His new approach sounds like his old approach and brings to mind another failed liberal politician.  

“If Dukakis is elected, he would act next year as he acted last week: trim here and there, but then take a frequent flyer to the last resort [new taxes]. He would accelerate rather than break the spending urge in Congress.”

- William Safire
New York Times
6/29/88

Americans have come to the realization that the status quo is not sustainable.  In Ryan's plan, the Republicans have offered a real plan that will seek to balance the budget over the long term by overhauling our taxcode to make it fairer and making changes to Medicare and Medicaid now in order to make these programs sustainable.  In responding to the Republicans 2012 budget proposal, Obama has chosen to champion a course that would make Michael Dukakis proud by pledging to tax our way to prosperity. 

For all the faults with the President's plan, the greatest is that he attempts to hijack the narrative with a falsehood.  The only real spending cuts he offers are tax increases.  As I'm sure many of you have heard, we don't have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem.  In using an Orwellian nomenclature of calling a tax increase, a "spending cut", Obama seeks to confuse the issue.

In the 1990's a combination of events led to a few years of budget surpluses.  Following the fall of the Soviet Union, National Defense was downsized to cash in on the Peace Dividend.  After being elected, Bill Clinton raised taxes on an expanding economy and then two years later, a Republican congress began reigning in discretionary spending.  Looking at the chart, we can see spending increased back to 20% of GDP following 9/11 and was held there until Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats regained control of Congress.  From there, spending took an immediate upswing.  Under Obama, this spending has been made worse.

Deficits are expected to increase in a recession as revenues decrease, which did happen in 2008.  But by shifting our spending baseline in such an extreme way, Obama has accelerated our impending demise.  The truth is that with or without our current increases in discretionary spending, our spending will soon drive us into a hole that threatens to swallow us.

The President's response to raise taxes while leaving entitlements untouched will only delay by a few years the inevitable.  Soon our entire revenue stream will be spent on entitlements.

Raising tax revenues from the historic level of 18% of GDP will only offer us, at best, a temporary respite.  Of course, raising tax rates has no guarantee of increasing revenue.   As Larry Kudlow writes at National Review,

Of course, the president’s formula of estimating higher revenues to lower the deficit is completely wrong. The reality is that higher tax rates will slow the economy, inhibit new start-up companies, penalize investors, and may very well lose revenues and increase the deficit.

It is questionable what raising tax rates will do to our economy.  What is not questionable is what will happen to our debt if we do not address the real source of our future troubles.

No amount of tax increases will ever be able to manage debt of this size.  Any plan that does not seek to alter or amend Medicare spending is not a serious plan.  Today, our entitlement spending is 58% of our spending.  Add in interest payments and we're now over 75%.  National defense and discretionary spending are left with only 1/4 of our budget.  In the past, our defense spending was close to half of all spending.  Today it sits at 20% and the President looks to cut if further.

 

While he presents us with cuts from a declining slice of the pie, he makes no offer to deal with the programs that will soon make up the entire pie.  What happens then?  Imagine a government shutdown that never ends.

As I have tried to make clear, we cannot ignore the real driver of our budget deficit.  It's the huge twinkie in the room.  Last week's budget showdown over spending cuts in our non-defense discretionary spending is chump change compared to the real issue - entitlements.

That's a big twinkie and it will continue to grow no matter how high taxes are raised. 

In 2008, a very liberal Senator Barack Obama ran as a centrist, promising to cut the budget, not raise taxes on the middle class and be pragmatic and do what works.  Now, when his leadership has been challenged to a large degree by Rep. Ryan, a very liberal President Obama showed us his true colors - tax and spend.  His proposal will soak the rich while cutting defense in order to keep spending more on "investments".

40 years ago, Medicare, Medicaid & Social Security spending was 4% of GDP.  Today it is 10%.  In another 40 years, it is projected to be at 18% - the historical average for tax revenues.  At that point, we have no other money left for defense, interest payments or running the government.  Then, or even sooner, those programs, along with a whole host of other government spending will be cut or eliminated - unless we make changes now.

In choosing to confront Ryan's Path to Prosperity, the President, instead chose to offer up a European vision for a Path to Austerity.  As the two paths diverge, the choice is clear.

Ruminations From the Void

Double standards - noun - any code or set of principles containing different provisions for one group of people than for another...

Hypocrisy - noun - the practice of professing standards, beliefs, etc, contrary to one's real character or actual behaviour

Double standards exist when two groups are held to differing standards due to an inherent difference between the groups.  People often have different standards for men and women given the many differences between the groups.  It is somewhat less acceptable to regard groups of different ethnic or religious cultures differently, but it happens.  With the exception of a few fringe groups, the standards for humans and animals are wisely very different.

Hypocrisy on the other hand is when a person exhibits a standard for others and refuses to hold themselves to that same standard.

A double standard says "some for this one, but not for that one" and hypocrisy says "some for me, but none for thee".  Got it?  Of course there is always a situation where one simply has no guiding principles and improvises standards all willy-nilly. 

Beyond that, some use an immutable guiding principle for their words and actions.  See if you can spot which approach is being used in each story of today's Ruminations.  Don't be afraid to call me out too.

#1 - Here is President Obama in remarks made Friday, March 18th 2011,

Now, here's why this matters to us. Left unchecked, we have every reason to believe that Qadhafi would commit atrocities against his people. Many thousands could die. A humanitarian crisis would ensue.  The entire region could be destabilized, endangering many of our allies and partners.  The calls of the Libyan people for help would go unanswered. The democratic values that we stand for would be overrun.  Moreover, the words of the international community would be rendered hollow.

And that's why the United States has worked with our allies and partners to shape a strong international response at he United Nations. Our focus has been clear: protecting innocent civilians within Libya and holding the Qadhafi regime accountable.

Our decisions have been driven by Qadhafi's refusal to respect the rights of his people and the potential for mass murder of innocent civilians.

In 2007, an interview with Senator Obama began with this lede,

Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama said Thursday the United States cannot use its military to solve humanitarian problems and that preventing a potential genocide in Iraq isn't a good enough reason to keep U.S. forces there.

Ruminations From the Void



Meaningless Graphic



*   Baseball season is upon us and I'm afraid my beloved St. Louis Cardinals are, sadly, already out of contention.  With the loss of ace pitcher Adam Wainwright and the addition of a Lance 'Crutches' Berkman to Right Field/DL, it could be a very difficult year for the Redbirds.  If nothing else, it should make it clear to Cardinal Nation that it takes more than one $30 million man to make a winning team.  I'm not saying Albert Pujols is not worth the money, but not at the cost of fielding a competitive team.  The new 72" 3D TV may be worth $10,000, but not if it means I stop making my mortgage payment.

*  Good news for parents and society.  Abstinence is not dead.  Recent studies show that more teens are choosing not to have sex.  From the Washington Post,

Among the findings of a sweeping federal government survey of American sexual behavior is one that may surprise those bewailing a permissive and eros-soaked popular culture: More than one-quarter of people interviewed in their late teens and early 20s had never had sex.

And the number was growing.

The latest round of the quaintly named National Survey of Family Growth found that among 15-to-24-year-olds, 29 percent of females and 27 percent of males reported no sexual contact with another person ever – up from the 22 percent of both sexes when the survey was last conducted in 2002.

[h/t Kathryn Lopez, NRO]

Perhaps this is a reflection of President Bush's push for including abstinence in school's sex education.  In the 1980's, drug use declined during Nancy Reagan's "Just say no" campaign.  The two residents of the White House can have a tremendous impact on our young people, so shouldn't the current First Lady find a more urgent message than "Eat your veggies".   The President has gone on the record to tell us to "Check your tire pressure" to help with fuel economy.  I mean, I'm really going to lose it if I hear Michelle start a "Wait 30" campaign to encourage children to wait 30 minutes after eating before swimming.

*  Obamacare may be over before it really began.  President Obama's administration asked Judge Vinson on clarification of the judge's ruling that the new Health Care Reform law was unconstitutional.  The judge explained that he failed to issue an injunction against the law's implementation because he assumed that it wouldn't be necessary.  Here's what he wrote regarding this clarification,

So to “clarify” my order and judgment: The individual mandate was declared unconstitutional. Because that “essential” provision was unseverable from the rest of the Act, the entire legislation was void. This declaratory judgment was expected to be treated as the “practical” and “functional equivalent of an injunction” with respect to the parties to the litigation. This expectation was based on the “longstanding presumption” that the defendants themselves identified and agreed to be bound by, which provides that a declaratory judgment against federal officials is a de facto injunction. To the extent that the defendants were unable (or believed that they were unable) to comply, it was expected that they would immediately seek a stay of the ruling, and at that point in time present their arguments for why such a stay is necessary, which is the usual and standard procedure. It was not expected that they would effectively ignore the order and declaratory judgment for two and one-half weeks, continue to implement the Act, and only then file a belated motion to “clarify.” [h/t Avik Roy, NRO]

In legal speak, this was a smack down on the Obama's administration.  As it stands now, Obama has seven days to get this fast-tracked for the Supreme Court or the administration will be instructed to stop implementation of the law.

*  While we are on the topic of health care, Jim Manzi comes to a dramatic conclusion after looking at the results of the RAND Health Insurance Experiment.  Jim says,

Providing people coverage of their medical costs caused no average improvement in health.

That is one very big argument against a costly universal health care program.  As we have seen all too well in our home over the past few years, more care does not equal improved health.  My daughter has had procedures, medicines, and multiple specialists while seeing absolutely no improvement in her health.  She is one very frustrated young woman. 

Just like my old car was going to drip oil no matter what I fixed, some people are more prone to getting a sinus, ear or bladder infection and no amount of money spent is going to fix that.  Well at least not unless we're in some sci-fi movie where they're changing people's DNA.  And then, it usually turns them into psychos, monsters or zombies (oh my).  It's hard to justify the cost if that's the end result.

*  Speaking of Science-fiction, a Nasa Scientist claims to have discovered alien life forms here on Earth.  Searching within a class of meteorites - CI1 carbonaceous chondrites - of which only 9 such meteorites are known to exist on Earth, Dr. Richard Hoover claims to have found alien lifeforms, some of which are similar to organisms on earth.  In his own words,

“The exciting thing is that they are in many cases recognizable and can be associated very closely with the generic species here on earth.  There are some that are just very strange and don’t look like anything that I’ve been able to identify, and I’ve shown them to many other experts that have also come up stumped.”

When another NASA scientist was questioned about Hoover's findings, he expressed a need for caution.  He stopped short of saying that Dr. Hoover often sits by himself in the corner of the cafeteria eating sugar sandwiches while talking to the ghost of Genghis Khan, but he seemed doubtful about the claim.

I don't doubt the sincerity of the lonely Dr. Hoover, but finding fossilized organisms on the surface of a meterorite that seem to bear a remarkable similarity to earth life, is a bit like finding a spot of blood on the floor of a pizza joint that tastes remarkably like tomato sauce.  He has his conclusions and I have mine.  We'll see who's right after further study from other scientists.

*  For those who think I've been too hard on the Public Employee Unions in Wisconsin, the average teacher in the Milwaukee Public Schools received compensation in the amount of $101,091 - that's $59,500 in salary plus $41,591 in benefits.  As a total package that is comparable to what the plant managers at my company make.  The difference is our managers are considered Exempt employees and are not eligible to form a union and collectively bargain.  As I've said before, this isn't really about money after all now, is it? [h/t John McCormack, Weekly Standard]

*  Gas prices getting you mad.  Don't expect much relief from the White House.  Obama does not seem interested in allowing the gulf oil industry to get back into action, which along with the events in the Middle East are causing the upward shift.  I say shift and not spike because a spike implies prices falling, which I don't expect to happen.

According to the Energy Information Administration, the Obama offshore drilling moratorium will cause a 13-percent fall in domestic offshore oil production this year, which translates to a loss of about 220,000 barrels of oil a day. That means lower GDP growth for the nation, higher gas prices for all Americans, lower tax revenues for the federal government, and most importantly, fewer jobs for Americans living in the Gulf region.

[h/t Bryan Preston, PJ Tatler]

The administration may begin using some of our Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a short term stopgap, but as long as we are drilling less instead of more, this administration is condemning us to a large and long term increase in fuel prices.  Chevy sold less than 300 Volt electric cars in February.  Obama wants that to change.  Allowing gas prices to climb to $4 or $5 a gallon is a feature of his energy plan, not a bug.

*  Any lobster fans on a budget out there?  Sorry, but the McLobster will not be going nationwide, McDonald's announced last week.  But it does appears that my wish has finally come true.

*  Blogging may be a little short the next few days.  I am going to be in Jefferson City, Missouri meeting with state legislators discussing the issues I think are important for Missouri.  On my agenda:

• Stop the push for a Right to Work law
• Cut the corporate sales tax rate
• Fund tax incentives that make Missouri competitive
• Greater use of the E-verify system to stop the employment of illegal aliens
• Cut, cut, cut the red tape on small businesses
• Fight the implementation of Obamacare
• End the practice of funeral protests
• Discuss the different Fair Tax proposals (I'm inclined against it)
• End the practice of regulating normal household products that may be used for Meth production (bath salts? - really? Where does it stop?)
• School vouchers / school choice

If I'm missing anything important, please let me know.  Let your voice be heard.

Have a great week!

Go...go with God, but just go.

Casual Friday Edition

Bureau of Labor Statistics will release unemployment data for the month of February.  Initial reports are mixed, but let's hope that we see some movement in the right direction.

Employment in my household has now reached 60%.  The beautiful Dawn, after the recovery from her winter of discontentment, has begun dipping her toes in the labor pool, but has yet to plunge in.  My seven year old son is contemplating an offer to drop out of 2nd grade to become a video game pro.  We are encouraging him to maintain his amateur status for Olympic considerations (I'm aware that the restriction against professionals no longer exists, but he doesn't - after all, he's only seven).  So far, he is sticking with school, which he will need if he ever hopes to become a video game scientist.

Speaking of unemployment, it seems that the cast and crew of "Two and a Half Men" are soon to join the ranks of the unemployed.  CBS has shut down production of the show following Charlie Sheen's "bi-winning" interview this week on ABC.  That's a great job by ABC - top ratings for the interview and shutting down the competition in the process.

I do not know whether Charlie is going through a phase, needs serious help or if this is just who he is.  But as I was driving in to work today, KFTK 97.1's Dana Loesch was playing a game of "Charlie Sheen or Omar Gadhafi?"  It sounded fun so I'll try it here.  I'll give you a quote and you decide who said it - Charlie or Omar.  Let's play.

1. "I have defeated this earthworm with my words. Imagine what I would have done with my fire-breathing fists."
2. "Your face will melt off and your children will weep over your exploded body."
3. "Life without dignity is worthless."
4. "Every great movement begins with one man."
5. "I woke up at 4 a.m., before dawn. You should be asleep. You're all tired after a sleepless night."
6. "I am like the Queen of England."
7. "I'm different. I have a different constitution, I have a different brain, I have a different heart. I got tiger blood, man. Dying's for fools, dying's for amateurs."
8. "...it is our planet and they can go to another planet."
9. "Do not believe these channels—they are dogs."
10. "I closed my eyes and made it so with the power of my mind, and unlearned 22 years of fiction"
11. "and people can't figure me out; they can't process me. I don't expect them to. You can't process me with a normal brain."

Go ahead and try before looking below for the answers.  It's harder than you would think.

After this week's SOTUS ruling on the Westboro group, I wrote Common Decency is Not a Law.  In it, I take up the notion that shame is our weapon against actions that fall outside our common decency.  The law exists to prevent and punish the actions of those who would act against the right's of another.  Murder, theft, arson, assault are crimes for this reason.  But we should not make it a crime to operate outside our common decency.  Our society must use the tools available to us, in order to bring citizens into voluntarily heeding this unwritten code.

Shame can be a powerful weapon.  When you see someone look around before telling an offensive joke, they are operating under the effect of shame.   To paraphrase Gordon Gekko,

"Shame, for lack of a better word, is good. Shame is right, Shame works. Shame clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of our common decency.  And Shame, you mark my words, will not only save your community, but that other community called the USA."

Our children are being taught that shame is bad.  They are encouraged to take a stance that says, "This is who I am - deal with it!"  They see shame as someone else's problem not theirs.  They couldn't be more wrong.

Shame is what powers us forward when we fail.  Shame is a signal to look inward and see if an adjustment needs to be made.  Shame is the converse of pride.  When we lose a sense of shame in our actions, we lose the opportunity to feel pride also.  Self-esteem is built in moments of pride.  Self-esteem is lost when pride loses its meaning. 

Shame is a basic building block for a civil society.  We watched Charlie Sheen's interview this week and we were shocked by him.  What we saw was the excess of a man who lives without the presence of shame in his life.  We've seen this before in countless celebrities, from Hugh Hefner to Lady Gaga.  But because we have fallen in love with the characters Sheen has played, perhaps we expected better from him. 

Sorry, if that went too long.  Remember, shame like any weapon in the wrong hands or used without caution is dangerous.  I'm also sorry if my mockery of Sheen offends anyone.  In truth, I feel very sorry for him - in a way that would immediately cause him to laugh if he became aware of it.  Sorry Charlie, I was looking forward to another Major League movie, too but get some help, dude.

NUTS

My favorite nut, Chris Matthews goes off on Newt Gingrich saying, "He looks like a car bomber.....He looks like he loves torturing."  [h/t Geoffrey Dickens at Newbusters]

Documentary director Michael Moore said recently about wealthy people, "They're sitting on the money, they're using it for their own ... That's not theirs, that's a national resource, that's ours."  [h/t Newsbusters]  I would personally like to accept a check from Mr. Moore, on behalf of the nation's poor, which I will use to buy a new oven, then distribute in like manner to others.  Just email me with your request.

Remember back in the 1970's when we had those crazy scientists telling us we were headed for an ice age.  Quotes like this were commonplace, "This number seems small until it is realized that a decrease of only 4°C would probably be sufficient to start another ice age... A final push in the cooling direction comes from man-made changes in the direct reflectivity of the earth’s surface." - Dr. John Holdren.  It's good to know that President Obama can rely on good competent scientists instead, like his Advisor on Science Technology, Dr. John Holdren.  Hmmm...that name certainly sounds familiar.  [h/t Hotair]

From US News & World Report, in a new book, President Obama spoke candidly about race & his opposition,   "In May 2010, he told guests at a private White House dinner that race was probably a key component in the rising opposition to his presidency from conservatives,".  Sorry, but my opposition to Russ Carnahan, Dick Gephardt, Mel Carnahan, Bob Holden, Claire McCaskill along with everyone else I've ever voted against has never been held against me as a sign of racism.  I thought living in a color blind world meant that we judge people by their actions and not the color of their skin.  But even when a group of people choose to act as a result of his actions, the President feels that's racist.  I suppose by the same token, that would make the union groups protesting in Madison, WI racist, too.  or maybe I just don't know what words mean anymore.

[I include this next one with a disclaimer.  Clicking on the link included will take you to a story that is a bit more graphical than mine with links that will continue to up the ante.  Just sayin.]
Northwestern University professor John Bailey used sex toys for a demonstration for his Human Sexuality course.  The unusual exhibition included the use of the an "item" on a naked woman.  h/t Hotair 
What makes it worse is that the university has defended the professor (another example of no shame).  I only included the link because you will find a reference to a scene from Monty Python's Meaning of Life.  Remember, those skits were funny because they were so preposterous.  They're a little less funny today.

Here are your answers to the quiz:
Sheen - 1, 2, 4, 7, 10, 11
Gadhafi - 3, 5, 6, 8, 9

That's it today.  Have a safe weekend.  Spend it with your family if you have one.  If not spend it with your goddesses then, I suppose.

One final question - Are we bi-winning the future yet?